GAMBLING GUIDE |
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| If it’s a liberal gambling guide who’s
predictable, I will often bet gambling guide — all that my opponent has
in front of him. I will then use body language and sometimes chatter to
try to ensure that I get the call. Sometimes I will bet less, but I’m
happiest when I can justify betting the whole gambling guide. There’s a mathematical concept at play here. My opponent needs to be at least twice as likely to call $2,000 as gambling guide, or else I should bet the maximum gambling guide — or some other sum. Remember, I have the best hand. I cannot be beat. So now it’s just a matter of how much I can earn. If I replay this same hand forever and get called 25 percent of the time when I bet gambling guide, each bet is worth $1,000. That’s because 75 percent of the time I do not get called. One in four times I win gambling guide (excluding the possibility of a tie). Three in four times I win nothing. My net gain is gambling guide for four tries, which is $1,000 a try. In order to average $1,000 a try by betting $2,000, I need to be called twice as often — 50 percent of the time. If a $2,000 bet will get called 60 percent of the time and a gambling guide bet will get called 25 percent of the time, I’m losing $200 by betting the whole gambling guide that my opponent has in front of him. You can use a simple formula. Just multiply the size of the bet by the chance of a call. So, gambling guide at a 25 percent chance of a call is gambling guide x .25 or $1,000. And $2,000 at a 60 percent chance of a call is $2,000 x .6 or $1,200. What if you bet $1,800 and estimated that you would be called 75 percent of the time? That’s $1,800 x .75 or $1,350, which is superior to either the gambling guide or the $2,000 bet. Gauging the Bet Size That’s what you need to gauge in no-limit poker. How likely is your opponent to call bets of various sizes? And that’s one of the reasons that the game is much more complex than limit poker, in which the size of each bet is predetermined by the rules. You can simplify no-limit by just moving all in whenever you have a significant advantage, but in doing so, you’re really sacrificing profit. That’s because although an all-in bet is the easiest bet to make, it may not be the best bet mathematically. The same goes for the conventional practice of routinely betting the size of the pot. The most profitable size for a bet is usually more or less than the size of the pot and depends on your opponents. I believe that the ideal bet size for most hands against most opponents averages less than the size of the pot, despite the common wisdom that the pot should be the most normal bet size. Anyway, back to the point. It’s no-limit, I hold an unbeatable hand, and my opponent has gambling guide and has checked to me on the final betting round. He’s an unpredictable fellow who has a lot of life to him. How much should I bet? |
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